In response to the publication of National Grid’s Winter Outlook report, Dorian Lucas, energy analyst at the Inenco Group, said:
“The capacity margin predicted by National Grid in its Winter Outlook is not a surprise to the market and the continued downward trend in forward market prices is testament to the fact few believe we will struggle with security of supply this winter. However, for the first time large businesses will play a fundamental role in keeping the system balanced, helping to boost a 1.2% margin to 5.1%. Demand side schemes have been put in place to incentivise major energy users to respond to tighter margins and these should be more than adequate to maintain supply during peak winter periods and to counter unexpected plant outages.
“However, the ever decreasing margins do highlight the need to bring more capacity onto the system in the medium term to prevent issues in future winters or in the event of technical issues taking plants offline during the winter periods.”